17th July 2017
This week we started to see the reality of Brexit as some of the mechanics of the transition become visible.
A decision to quit Euratom, the European nuclear watchdog, shows just how deeply reliant the UK is on European institutions. This hidden infrastructure that the country has relied upon for 60 years is only now entering the public consciousness, as people realise there is more to Brexit than immigrants and bendy bananas.
While it’s likely that article 50 is irreversible; to achieve the hard Brexit that seemed inevitable only a few months ago, a lot of things need to happen. A weak and unpopular prime minister needs to keep together a fragile government, public support needs to be maintained in the face of worsening economic conditions and mounting costs, and serious technical challenges of regulation and infrastructure, many of which are not yet fully understood, need to be solved. All the while Theresa May has to deal with pressure groups, her reality-challenged backbenchers and the prospect of being knifed by Boris Johnson at any moment. Even the most optimistic Brexiteer would be a fool to offer you more than even money on a clean break.
Read our full Market Commentary for last week below.