30th May 2017

Labour Cut Tory Lead to Five Points – Or Do They?

It seems like yesterday that we swore off opinion polls for life, but like addicts we are all back for more.

YouGov saw the Tory lead down to five points after the Tories’ manifesto was poorly received and the appalling Manchester bombing. Other polls show a similar trend, if less extreme. It seems that a growing certainty to vote and to vote Labour amongst young people and previous non-voters is driving the headline numbers, which is why certain pollsters, who place less weight on these categories, show such different figures.

Chances are these people will not vote, or will vote in safe Labour areas, with Labour MPs in marginals still hearing bad news on the doorstep from all accounts. However, we must prepare ourselves for the possibility of Prime Minister Corbyn, so we expect an increase in volatility in the markets in the two weeks before polling day.

Read our Full Market Commentary below.

Market Commentary

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