20th May 2019

Markets remain unusually calm amidst escalating tensions

This week, despite the escalating trade war with China and a growing possibility of an actual war with Iran, US markets largely shrugged off rising uncertainty. While we are advocates for ignoring the noise and focusing on the long term, this still seems unusually zen. While it’s possible that the erratic behaviour of President Trump is now fully priced in, it could also be that the market has now become complacent and is too heavily discounting anything serious happening. The latter is more likely, which means a violent reaction to these events could still be on the cards if expectations shift.

 

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